# QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals. # Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation. # # Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License"); # you may not use this file except in compliance with the License. # You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0 # # Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software # distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS, # WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied. # See the License for the specific language governing permissions and # limitations under the License. from AlgorithmImports import * from scipy.optimize import minimize ### ### Provides an implementation of a portfolio optimizer that calculate the optimal weights ### with the weight range from -1 to 1 and minimize the portfolio variance with a target return of 2% ### ### The budged constrain is scaled down/up to ensure that the sum of the absolute value of the weights is 1. class MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer: '''Provides an implementation of a portfolio optimizer that calculate the optimal weights with the weight range from -1 to 1 and minimize the portfolio variance with a target return of 2%''' def __init__(self, minimum_weight = -1, maximum_weight = 1, target_return = 0.02): '''Initialize the MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer Args: minimum_weight(float): The lower bounds on portfolio weights maximum_weight(float): The upper bounds on portfolio weights target_return(float): The target portfolio return''' self.minimum_weight = minimum_weight self.maximum_weight = maximum_weight self.target_return = target_return def optimize(self, historical_returns, expected_returns = None, covariance = None): ''' Perform portfolio optimization for a provided matrix of historical returns and an array of expected returns args: historical_returns: Matrix of annualized historical returns where each column represents a security and each row returns for the given date/time (size: K x N). expected_returns: Array of double with the portfolio annualized expected returns (size: K x 1). covariance: Multi-dimensional array of double with the portfolio covariance of annualized returns (size: K x K). Returns: Array of double with the portfolio weights (size: K x 1) ''' if covariance is None: covariance = historical_returns.cov() if expected_returns is None: expected_returns = historical_returns.mean() size = historical_returns.columns.size # K x 1 x0 = np.array(size * [1. / size]) constraints = [ {'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda weights: self.get_budget_constraint(weights)}, {'type': 'eq', 'fun': lambda weights: self.get_target_constraint(weights, expected_returns)}] # https://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/generated/scipy.optimize.minimize.html opt = minimize(lambda weights: self.portfolio_variance(weights, covariance), # Objective function x0, # Initial guess bounds = self.get_boundary_conditions(size), # Bounds for variables constraints = constraints, # Constraints definition method='SLSQP') # Optimization method: Sequential Least Squares Programming (SLSQP) if not opt['success']: return x0 # Scale the solution to ensure that the sum of the absolute weights is 1 sum_of_absolute_weights = np.sum(np.abs(opt['x'])) return opt['x'] / sum_of_absolute_weights def portfolio_variance(self, weights, covariance): '''Computes the portfolio variance Args: weighs: Portfolio weights covariance: Covariance matrix of historical returns''' variance = np.dot(weights.T, np.dot(covariance, weights)) if variance == 0 and np.any(weights): # variance can't be zero, with non zero weights raise ValueError(f'MinimumVariancePortfolioOptimizer.portfolio_variance: Volatility cannot be zero. Weights: {weights}') return variance def get_boundary_conditions(self, size): '''Creates the boundary condition for the portfolio weights''' return tuple((self.minimum_weight, self.maximum_weight) for x in range(size)) def get_budget_constraint(self, weights): '''Defines a budget constraint: the sum of the weights equals unity''' return np.sum(weights) - 1 def get_target_constraint(self, weights, expected_returns): '''Ensure that the portfolio return target a given return''' return np.dot(np.matrix(expected_returns), np.matrix(weights).T).item() - self.target_return