/*
* QUANTCONNECT.COM - Democratizing Finance, Empowering Individuals.
* Lean Algorithmic Trading Engine v2.0. Copyright 2014 QuantConnect Corporation.
*
* Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
* you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
* You may obtain a copy of the License at http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
*
* Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
* distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
* WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
* See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
* limitations under the License.
*/
using System;
using System.Collections;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Globalization;
using QuantConnect.Data;
using QuantConnect.Data.Market;
using QuantConnect.Indicators;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp
{
///
/// Strategy example algorithm using CAPE - a bubble indicator dataset saved in dropbox. CAPE is based on a macroeconomic indicator(CAPE Ratio),
/// we are looking for entry/exit points for momentum stocks CAPE data: January 1990 - December 2014
/// Goals:
/// Capitalize in overvalued markets by generating returns with momentum and selling before the crash
/// Capitalize in undervalued markets by purchasing stocks at bottom of trough
///
///
///
public class BubbleAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
private decimal _currCape;
private readonly decimal[] _c = new decimal[4];
private readonly decimal[] _cCopy = new decimal[4];
private bool _newLow;
private int _counter;
private int _counter2;
private MovingAverageConvergenceDivergence _macd;
private RelativeStrengthIndex _rsi = new RelativeStrengthIndex(14);
private readonly ArrayList _symbols = new ArrayList();
private readonly Dictionary _rsiDic = new Dictionary();
private readonly Dictionary _macdDic = new Dictionary();
///
/// Called at the start of your algorithm to setup your requirements:
///
public override void Initialize()
{
SetCash(100000);
_symbols.Add("SPY");
SetStartDate(1998, 1, 1);
SetEndDate(2014, 6, 1);
//Present Social Media Stocks:
// symbols.Add("FB");symbols.Add("LNKD");symbols.Add("GRPN");symbols.Add("TWTR");
// SetStartDate(2011, 1, 1);
// SetEndDate(2014, 12, 1);
//2008 Financials:
// symbols.Add("C");symbols.Add("AIG");symbols.Add("BAC");symbols.Add("HBOS");
// SetStartDate(2003, 1, 1);
// SetEndDate(2011, 1, 1);
//2000 Dot.com:
// symbols.Add("IPET");symbols.Add("WBVN");symbols.Add("GCTY");
// SetStartDate(1998, 1, 1);
// SetEndDate(2000, 1, 1);
//CAPE data
AddData("CAPE");
foreach (string stock in _symbols)
{
AddSecurity(SecurityType.Equity, stock, Resolution.Minute);
_macd = MACD(stock, 12, 26, 9, MovingAverageType.Exponential, Resolution.Daily);
_macdDic.Add(stock, _macd);
_rsi = RSI(stock, 14, MovingAverageType.Exponential, Resolution.Daily);
_rsiDic.Add(stock, _rsi);
Securities[stock].SetLeverage(10);
}
}
///
/// Trying to find if current Cape is the lowest Cape in three months to indicate selling period
///
public void OnData(CAPE data)
{
_newLow = false;
//Adds first four Cape Ratios to array c
_currCape = data.Cape;
if (_counter < 4)
{
_c[_counter++] = _currCape;
}
//Replaces oldest Cape with current Cape
//Checks to see if current Cape is lowest in the previous quarter
//Indicating a sell off
else
{
Array.Copy(_c, _cCopy, 4);
Array.Sort(_cCopy);
if (_cCopy[0] > _currCape) _newLow = true;
_c[_counter2++] = _currCape;
if (_counter2 == 4) _counter2 = 0;
}
Debug("Current Cape: " + _currCape + " on " + data.Time);
if (_newLow) Debug("New Low has been hit on " + data.Time);
}
///
/// New data for our assets.
///
public override void OnData(Slice slice)
{
try
{
//Bubble territory
if (_currCape > 20 && _newLow == false)
{
foreach (string stock in _symbols)
{
//Order stock based on MACD
//During market hours, stock is trading, and sufficient cash
if (Securities[stock].Holdings.Quantity == 0 && _rsiDic[stock] < 70
&& Securities[stock].Price != 0 && Portfolio.Cash > Securities[stock].Price * 100
&& Time.Hour == 9 && Time.Minute == 31)
{
Buy(stock);
}
//Utilize RSI for overbought territories and liquidate that stock
if (_rsiDic[stock] > 70 && Securities[stock].Holdings.Quantity > 0
&& Time.Hour == 9 && Time.Minute == 31)
{
Sell(stock);
}
}
}
// Undervalued territory
else if (_newLow)
{
foreach (string stock in _symbols)
{
//Sell stock based on MACD
if (Securities[stock].Holdings.Quantity > 0 && _rsiDic[stock] > 30
&& Time.Hour == 9 && Time.Minute == 31)
{
Sell(stock);
}
//Utilize RSI and MACD to understand oversold territories
else if (Securities[stock].Holdings.Quantity == 0 && _rsiDic[stock] < 30
&& Securities[stock].Price != 0 && Portfolio.Cash > Securities[stock].Price * 100
&& Time.Hour == 9 && Time.Minute == 31)
{
Buy(stock);
}
}
}
// Cape Ratio is missing from original data
// Most recent cape data is most likely to be missing
else if (_currCape == 0)
{
Debug("Exiting due to no CAPE!");
Quit("CAPE ratio not supplied in data, exiting.");
}
}
catch (RegressionTestException err)
{
Error(err.Message);
}
}
///
/// Buy this symbol
///
public void Buy(string symbol)
{
var s = Securities[symbol].Holdings;
if (_macdDic[symbol] > 0m)
{
SetHoldings(symbol, 1);
Debug("Purchasing: " + symbol + " MACD: " + _macdDic[symbol] + " RSI: " + _rsiDic[symbol]
+ " Price: " + Math.Round(Securities[symbol].Price, 2) + " Quantity: " + s.Quantity);
}
}
///
/// Sell this symbol
///
///
public void Sell(string symbol)
{
var s = Securities[symbol].Holdings;
if (s.Quantity > 0 && _macdDic[symbol] < 0m)
{
Liquidate(symbol);
Debug("Selling: " + symbol + " at sell MACD: " + _macdDic[symbol] + " RSI: " + _rsiDic[symbol]
+ " Price: " + Math.Round(Securities[symbol].Price, 2) + " Profit from sale: " + s.LastTradeProfit);
}
}
}
///
/// CAPE Ratio for SP500 PE Ratio for avg inflation adjusted earnings for previous ten years
/// Custom Data from DropBox
/// Original Data from: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
///
public class CAPE : BaseData
{
public decimal Cape { get; set; }
private const string Format = "yyyy-MM";
private readonly CultureInfo _provider = CultureInfo.InvariantCulture;
///
/// Initializes a new instance of the indicator.
///
public CAPE()
{
Symbol = "CAPE";
}
///
/// Return the URL string source of the file. This will be converted to a stream
///
/// Configuration object
/// Date of this source file
/// true if we're in live mode, false for backtesting mode
/// String URL of source file.
public override SubscriptionDataSource GetSource(SubscriptionDataConfig config, DateTime date, bool isLiveMode)
{
// Remember to add the "?dl=1" for dropbox links
return new SubscriptionDataSource("https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggt6blmib54q36e/CAPE.csv?dl=1", SubscriptionTransportMedium.RemoteFile);
}
///
/// Reader Method :: using set of arguments we specify read out type. Enumerate
/// until the end of the data stream or file. E.g. Read CSV file line by line and convert
/// into data types.
///
/// BaseData type set by Subscription Method.
/// Config.
/// Line.
/// Date.
/// true if we're in live mode, false for backtesting mode
public override BaseData Reader(SubscriptionDataConfig config, string line, DateTime date, bool isLiveMode)
{
var index = new CAPE();
try
{
//Example File Format:
//Date | Price | Div | Earning | CPI | FractionalDate | Interest Rate | RealPrice | RealDiv | RealEarnings | CAPE
//2014.06 1947.09 37.38 103.12 238.343 2014.37 2.6 1923.95 36.94 101.89 25.55
var data = line.Split(',');
//Dates must be in the format YYYY-MM-DD. If your data source does not have this format, you must use
//DateTime.ParseExact() and explicit declare the format your data source has.
var dateString = data[0];
index.Time = DateTime.ParseExact(dateString, Format, _provider);
index.Cape = Convert.ToDecimal(data[10], CultureInfo.InvariantCulture);
index.Symbol = "CAPE";
index.Value = index.Cape;
}
catch
{
}
return index;
}
}
}